HomeMy WebLinkAboutDocumentation_Pension Public Safety_Tab 16_02/04/2008~Ilage of Tequesta
Public Safety
Officers' Pension Fund
4th Quarter 2007
' ROCKW OOD CAPITAL ADVISORS
721 Emerson Road, Suite 565 St. Louis, Missouri 63141 (888) 962-8336 (toll-free) (314) 962-1254 (fax)
Village of Tequesta Public Safety Officers' Pension Fund
c/o Mr. Ken Neilson
Chairman
250 Tequesta Drive
Suite 300
Tequesta, FL 33469
Re: Proxy Voting
Dear Board of Trustees:
Per our discussion at the November 5, 2007 board meeting regarding Proxy
Voting Guidelines, it was discovered that in contracting with Institutional
Shareholder Services (ISS) we mistakenly directed them to vote proxies based on
THEIR recommendation, not company management.
As I mentioned during the meeting, it was our intent that ALL "votes" be made
"with management" but, as was correctly pointed out, there were instances when
this had not occurred. It turns out this was because we, through our equity sub-
adviser, Contravisory Investment Management, mistakenly directed ISS to vote
shares with THEIR MANAGEMENT or analysts recommendation, not the stock
issuers management, like Boeing, as we thought (and intended) was being done.
The mistake/misunderstanding has been corrected (thanks to you) and you will
see in our reports as we go forward two columns; one labeled "Mgmt Rec" or
Management's Recommendation, and that's the recommendation of the issuing
company's management, and "Vote Cast", which is how your shares were voted
and in line with management.
If you have any other questions, please give me a call.
Again, I apologize for the confusion and the mistake, and very much
APPRECIATE YOUR BUSINESS!
Sincerely,
/~ 1/~G~~
~~ ~~ L +`
D. Andrew Holtgrieve
Managing Partner
721 Emerson Road Suite 565 St. Louis, Missouri 63141
314-962-8336 (toll-free) 888-962-8336 FAX 314-962-1254
®..,,,,
Wicked Ending?
TRJI'~~S NQT
MY 51STCR,
THAT'S
ALAN GReeNSP4N.
-~
I
i ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS ~
' Te uesta Public Safet Officers' Investment Policy
q Y
The Board recognizes that the obligations of the Fund are long-term and that the
investment policy should be made with a view toward performance and return over a
number of years. The general investment objective, then, is to obtain a reasonable total
rate of return -defined as interest and dividend income plus realized and unrealized
' I capital gains or losses -commensurate with the Prudent Investor Rule and any other
applicable statute.
' Reasonable consistency of return and protection of assets against the inroads of inflation
are paramount. However, the volatility of interest rates and securities markets make it
necessary to judge results within the context of several years rather than over short
periods of two years or less.
The performance of the total Fund will be measured for rolling three and five year periods
and compared to the return of a portfolio comprised of 60% S&P 500 Stock Index and
40% Lehman Brothers Intermediate Government/Credit Bond Index. On a relative basis,
performance for the combined portfolio over three to five year periods is expected to be
in the 40% of the Mobius Universe. Additionally, on an absolute basis, performance for
the combined portfolio over three to five year periods is expected to meet or exceed the
actuarial earnings assumption of 8%.
All investments made or held in the fund shall be limited to, obligations issued by the
United States Government or guaranteed as to principal and interest by the US Govt. or
by an agency of the US Govt. Additionally, stocks, commingled funds administered by
national or state banks, mutual funds and bonds or other evidence of indebtedness,
issued or guaranteed by a corporation organized under the laws of the United States, any
state or organized territory of the United States or the District of Columbia. Fixed income
securities are to be ranked Investment Grade by S & P or Moody's and 90% of the
equities shall be rated by a major rating service in the top three quality grades. Not more
than 5% of the Fund's assets shall be invested in the common stock, capital stock or debt
of any one issuing company, nor shall the aggregate investment in any one issuing
company exceed 5% of the outstanding capital stock of the company. Foreign securities
shall not exceed 10% of the value at cost of the fund.
ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS 2
Tequesta Public Safety Officers' Pension Fund
Fourth Quarter 2007
Total Fund
Portfolio Summary
Portfolio Summary
Fixed Income
39%
Total Fund Performance
Short-Term
Funds Tequesta PS -0.5% 10.1%
3% Policy (60/40) -0.8% 6.2%
(Policy 60% S&P 500 and 40% LBIN)
Equities
58%
ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS
3
Change in Market Value
I~
i~
Teauesta Public
Officers' Pension Fund
Equity -Fourth Quarter 2007
Another Year
And what a year at that. Between the spreading credit crisis (sub-prime mess), oil near $100 a barrel, a housing
"recession" and an accommodative Federal Reserve (Fed), it's hard to believe that another positive year for
stocks was possible -but that is precisely what happened. For the year, Rockwood Strategic Equity returned a
' respectable 11.7% vs. 5.5% for the S&P 500 and 5.1 % for the Russell 3000, despite the best efforts of the fourth
quarter to spoil the year.
The fourth quarter began positively, with most major stock indices reaching all time highs in October. Faced with
' the prospect of slower growth, the Fed cut interest rates an additional 25 basis points. Market volatility increased
in November as the credit crisis worsened, with news of large write-offs being taken by many of our largest
financial institutions. The continued decline in housing and the growing uncertainty over consumer spending
sent stocks lower for the balance of '07. Not even another Fed rate cut in mid-December (the third since the
' onset of the subprime crisis) could turn the tide. The stock market was disappointed, having hoped for more
aggressive Fed action. By year end, the Fed was more openly concerned about future economic growth than
inflation.
Sectors that contributed positively to the overall performance of the portfolio during the quarter were Materials
(US Steel added in October + 16%), Finance (stock selection has been a benefit here; TROW & LTR +7.0%),
Healthcare and ADR's (Bayer +14.8%). Areas that struggled were in the Consumer Discretionary (GM -31%),
Durables (Boeing faded -16%) and Technology sector as awhole -7.4%.
The consensus call for 2008 is that the economy will slip into a mild recession, and that the Capital Markets will
continue to be very volatile. This environment favors stock pickers. We continue to see many buying
opportunities. Early trends are developing in several sectors: Defensive Staples; Beverage groups; Energy
sector (particularly amongst the Energy Service Group and Integrated Oil & Gas); Health Care; Industrials (the
most impressive sector during the past seven years); and Technology (showing very attractive opportunities; a
sector that we will overweight). This unsettling stock market environment favors our flexible approach to
achieving long-term superior returns. We will continue to monitor your portfolio and make adjustments as
opportunities reveal themselves.
Contravisory Research & Management Corp. is a registered investment adviser and equity sub-adviser to Rockwood Capital
Advisors, LLC. &
Performance
18%
15%
12%
9%
6%
3%
0%
-3%
-6%
13.6%
11.9% 12.1 % o
10.5% 11.4 /o
5.5%
-2.8% -3.3%
4th Qtr. One
2007 Year
Tequesta Public Safety
Two Since Inception
Years (5/1 /05)
S&P 500
ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS 4
i'
----
Equity Portfolio
Fourth Quarter 2007
Characteristics
' Top Ten Holdings
1. Bayer AG 4.3%
2. Precision Castpart 3.8%
3. Praxair Inc. 3.4%
4. Stericycle Inc. 3.3%
' 5. Loews Corp. 3.1
6. Waters Corp. 3.1
7. PPL Corp. 3.0%
8. Verisign Inc. 3.0%
9. T. Rowe Price Group 2.9%
10. United States Steel 2.9%
Five Best Impact
1. Waters Corp. +18.2%
2. United States Steel Co. +16.1
' 3. Bayer AG +14.8%
4. PPL Corp. +13.2%
5. Verisign Inc. +11.5%
1 ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS
Style Box
Val Cr Grw
Large Cap - 52.8%
Mid Cap - 47.2%
Small Cap - 0%
Average Market Cap $39.8 billion
Median Market Cap $19.0 billion
Sector Allocation
Producer Technology
Durables 21%
Material
6%
Health Car
24%
Utilities
6%
A DR's
9%
ons. Disc.
4%
Five Worst Impact
1. General Motors Corp. -31.6%
2. Infineon Technologies -22.1%
3. Echostar Communication -19.4%
4. Cisco Systems Inc. -18.2%
5. Boeing Co. -16.4%
5
Cons. Staples
Finance 12%
6%
i'.
^ --
Equity Analysis and Attribution
' Fourth Quarter 2007
Sector Allocation
o
24 /o
^
20%
16%
12%
8%
^
4%
0%
^ Rockwood ^ S&P 500
21.2%
18.2
17.8% 17.6%
16.7%
12.9% 12.9%
12.0% 2.0% 11.5%
10.2%
8.5% 8.5%
7.2%
5.6%
3.8% 3.4%
0.0%
Staples Discretionary Health Materials
Care
^
~ ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS
Info Energy Industrial Tel/Util Finance
Tech
6
Equity Transactions
' Fourth Quarter 2007
Sold
Oct Tyco International LTD
' Oct Alliant Corp.
Oct Fixerv Inc.
Oct Safeway Inc.
Nov Infineon Technologies
Nov Sprint Nextel Corp.
Nov Wendy's International Inc.
Dec Ball Corp.
Dec Centurytellnc.
flcr rlrnni ('.hamiral (fin
Bought
Oct Mettler Toledo International -Mid Gap Growth, Info Tech
Oct Rockwell Collins Inc. - Lg Cap Growth, Industrials
Oct United States Steel Co. - Lg Cap Value, Materials
Nov Unilever - Lg Cap Blend, Consumer Staples
Nov Baxter International Inc. - Lg Cap Growth, Health Care
Nov Dell Inc. - Lg Cap Growth, lnfo Tech
Dec Cigna Corp. - Lg Cap Growth. Health Care
Dec Edison International - Lg Cap Blend, Utilities
Dec Energizer Holdings Inc. -Mid Cap Growth, Consumer Staples
ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS
7
Equity Holdings -December 31, 2007
i~
,. ..
. ,.
-- Cash 84,916 1.00 84,916 1.00 84,916 3.2 3.0 2,556 NA
BUD ANHEUSER BUSCH COS 1,200 47.30 56,762 52.34 62,808 2.4 2.5 1,584 0.55
T AT&T INC 1,700 34.20 58,146 41.56 70,652 2.7 3.9 2,720 0.81
BAX BAXTER INTL INC 1,100 58.90 64,791 58.05 64,094 2.4 1.5 957 0.46
BAYRY BAYER A G 1,250 54.83 68,532 91.19 113,985 4.3 1.2 1,340 NA
BA BOEING CO 670 64.60 43,282 87.46 58,598 2.2 1.8 1,072 0.87
CI CIGNA CORP 1,160 54.84 63,617 53.73 62,338 2.4 0.1 46 0.86
CSCO CISCO SYS INC 2,042 28.66 58,531 27.07 55,277 2.1 0.0 - 0.55
DELL DELL INC 2,170 29.31 63,600 24.51 53,187 2.0 0.0 - 0.70
EBAY EBAY INC 1,791 34.47 61,733 33.19 59,443 2.3 0.0 - 0.64
DISH ECHOSTAR COMMUNICA 1,500 36.71 55,071 37.72 56,580 2.2 0.0 - 0.03
EIX EDISON INTL 1,120 56.72 63,527 53.37 60,116 2.3 2.3 1,366 0.79
ENR ENERGIZER HLDGS IN 550 115.64 63,603 112.13 61,672 2.3 0.0 - 0.47
GM GENERAL MTRS CORP 1,685 33.55 56,525 24.89 41,940 1.6 4.0 1,685 0.98
HNZ HEINZ H J CO 1,160 42.56 49,367 46.68 54,590 2.1 3.3 1,763 0.90
HPQ HEWLETT PACKARD CO 1,485 33.46 49,682 50.48 75,082 2.9 0.6 475 0.30
IFF INTERNATIONAL FLAV 1,200 51.90 62,275 48.13 58,032 2.2 1.9 1,104 0.34
IBM INTL BUSINESS MCHN 613 110.24 67,575 108.10 66,265 2.5 1.5 981 0.32
AHO KONINKLIJKE AHOLD 4,260 16.09 68,543 13.93 59,355 2.3 0.0 - NA
LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN CO 710 64.92 46,095 105.26 74,735 2.8 1.6 1,193 0.20
LTR LOEWS CORP 1,630 25.16 41,007 50.34 82,054 3.1 0.5 408 0.12
MTD METTLER TOLEDO INT 632 102.87 65,012 113.80 71,922 2.7 0.0 - 0.84
PPL PPL CORP 1,500 34.50 51,752 52.09 78,593 3.0 2.3 1,830 0.35
PX PRAXAIR INC 1,000 63.70 63,700 88.71 88,710 3.4 1.4 1,200 0.73
PCP PRECISION CASTPART 715 50.64 36,211 138.70 99,171 3.8 0.1 86 0.33
COL ROCKWELL COLLINS I 869 75.16 65,316 71.97 62,542 2.4 0.9 556 0.45
HSIC SCHEIN HENRY INC 1,085 46.78 50,753 61.40 66,619 2.5 0.0 - 0.79
SGP SCHERING PLOUGH CO 2,111 29.81 62,936 26.64 56,237 2.1 1.0 549 0.60
SNN SMITH & NEPHEW PLC 1,062 59.29 62,970 57.42 60,980 2.3 1.0 598 NA
SRCL STERICYCLE INC 1,440 33.13 47,713 59.40 85,536 3.3 0.0 - 0.44
TROW T.ROWE PRICE GROUP 1,250 35.30 44,130 60.88 76,400 2.9 1.6 1,200 0.40
TMO THERMO FISHER SCIE 1,219 49.08 59,827 57.68 70,312 2.7 0.0 - 0.24
UN UNILEVER N V 1,800 34.22 61,600 36.46 65,628 2.5 2.3 1,526 NA
X UNITED STATES STL 622 104.30 64,872 120.91 75,206 2.9 0.7 498 0.82
WOOF VCA ANTECH INC 1,570 29.55 46,401 44.23 69,441 2.6 0.0 - 0.07
VRSN VERISIGN INC 2,075 29.00 60,181 37.61 78,041 3.0 0.0 - 0.04
VOLVY VOLVOAKTIEBOLAGET 3,873 16.82 65,154 16.79 65,016 2.5 3.7 2,405 NA
WAT WATERS CORP 1,037 61.84 64,124 79.07 81,996 3.1 0.0 - 0.90
:~.. ~~~
ROCKWOOD
CAPITAL ADVISORS
8
Proxy Voting Record
.-
...
..
Elect Directors For For 2,042 11/17/07
Amend Omnibus Stock Plan For For 2,042 11/17/07
Approve Executive Incentive Bonus Plan For For 2,042 11/17/07
Ratify Auditors For For 2,042 11/17/07
Amend Bylaws to Establish a Board Committee on Human Rights Against Against 2,042 11/17/07
Pay for Superior Performance Against Against 2,042 11/17/07
Advisory Vote to Ratify Named Executive Officers' Compensation Against Against 2,042 11/17/07
Report on Internet Fragmentation Against Against 2,042 11/17/07
Rockwood Capital Advisors, through our equity sub-adviser, Contravisory Research & Management Co., has retained Institutional Shareholder Services
("ISS") to coordinate and vote proxies with respect to client securities. Proxy voting is an important right of shareholders and reasonable care and
diligence must be undertaken to ensure that such rights are properly and timely exercised. When the Adviser has discretion to vote the proxies of its
clients, they will be voted by ISS in accordance with Company Management.
Client quarterly reports contain information with respect to each voted proxy about which the client portfolio held during the period, including (a) the name
of the issuer, (b) the proposal voted upon, and (c) how ISS voted the client's proxy. Additionally, the Compliance Officer will maintain files relating to the
Adviser's proxy voting procedures in an easily accessible place. Records will be maintained and preserved for five years from the end of the fiscal year
during which the last entry was made on a record, with records for the first two years kept in the offices of the Adviser. Records of the following will be
included in the files:
• Copies of this proxy voting policy and procedures, and any amendments thereto.
• A copy of each written client request for information on how ISS voted such client's proxies, and a copy of any written response to any
(written or oral) client request for information on how ISS voted its proxies.
The Adviser has arranged with ISS to have ISS maintain and make available promptly upon request (i) copies of each proxy statement that is received
for one of Adviser's clients, provided however that ISS and the Adviser may rely on obtaining a copy of proxy statements from the SEC's EDGAR system
for those proxy statements that are so available, (ii) a record of each vote that ISS casts for one of Adviser's clients and (iii) a copy of any document ISS
created that was material to making a decision how to vote proxies, or that memorializes that decision.
'~~ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS 9
~ Tequesta Public Safety Officers' Pension Fund
Fixed Income Fourth Quarter 2007
M rk Environment
a et
1 • The Fed lowered the federal funds rate an additional 50 basis points in Q4. However, because market-based
rates (e.g. LIBOR) remained stubbornly high, the Fed introduced a new monetary policy program, the Treasury
Auction Facility (TAF), designed to inject additional liquidity into the banking system.
' The yield curve steepened dramatically in 2007 as the Fed responded to the subprime crisis by opening wide the
liquidity spigots. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note plummeted from 4.8% to 3.0%. The 30-year bond yield,
however, fell only 0.3% in 2007 (4.8% to 4.5%).
' The subprime problem is likely to remain with us for some time. Rapidly rising home prices led to
unprecedented levels of home ownership, including many subprime borrowers. These high risk loans were
initially funded with low rate, adjustable mortgages. As these loans reset to higher rates, the borrowers
defaulted. The peak for subprime resets will be May 2008.
• The Lehman Aggregate had its best quarter of the year, returning 3.0% in Q4. For all of 2007 the Aggregate
was up 7%. The subprime meltdown led to a widespread downgrade of mortgage-related debt. Investors
scurried for the safety of Treasuries, and riskier assets took a beating. US Corporate bonds badly
underperformed the broad market during both the quarter (2.0%) and for the year (4.6%).
Sector Index Returns
0
12 /o
10%
8%
' 6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
^ 4th Qtr 2007
o zoo?
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
U.S. Treasury Yield Curves
Tsy Agy MBS Credit HY
3 2 5 10 30
mos yrs yrs yrs yrs
Fixed Income Performance
0
10 /o
8%
6%
' 4%
2%
0%
7.5% 7.4%
5.9% 5.7% o
5.0 /0 4.8%
2.8% 2.9%
4th Qtr. One Two Since Inception
2007 Year Years (5/1 /05)
' ~ Tequesta Public Safety Lehman Int. Gov't/Credit
ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS
~~~
10
I~
Fixed Income Portfolio Structure
' December 31, 2007
' Characteristics
Tequesta Public Safety
Cash U.S.
2% Treasuries
A BS/CMBS 39%
7%
Corporates
13%
Agencies
Mortgages 17%
22%
ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS
~~
0% 20% 40% 60%
Lehman Int. Gov't/Credit
u.s.
Treasuries
AZO%
A BS/CMB
0%
Corporate
34%
~ncies
Mortgages 23%
0%
11
i
' Fixed Holdings -December 31, 2007
i~
. •. , . .,
33 OOOOOOCM CASH & EQUIVALENTS AAA - 4.190 1/31/2008 100.000 33 1.88 4.190 0.08 0.08 0.00
25 07388VAB BSCMS 2007-T26 A2 AAA - 5.330 3112/2012 103.122 26 1.47 4.555 3.69 3.69 0.08
20 073902PR BEAR STEARNS COS INC A2 NIA 6.400 10/2/2017 96.616 20 1.12 6.880 6.99 7.13 0.32
20 161571 CH CHASE ISS TR 2007-017AA AAA - 5.120 1011512014 102.428 21 1.17 4.595 4.16 4.18 0.12
11 17275RAC CISCO SYS INC Al C+ 5.500 212212016 101.697 11 0.65 5.240 6.39 6.50 0.26
20 30161MAE EXELON GENERATION A3 B+ 6.200 10/112017 99.383 20 1.15 6.284 7.11 7.25 0.33
25 3133MLT8 FED HOME LN BKS AGY - 5.250 211312009 101.438 26 1.47 3.917 1.06 1.06 0.01
50 3133X15Y FED HOME LN BKS AGY - 4.100 3/3012009 100.344 51 2.89 3.812 1.20 1.19 0.02
50 3133X8R0 FED HOME LN BKS* AGY - 4.700 101412011 100.000 51 2.88 4.647 3.38 0.92 -0.83
20 3134A3EM FED HOME LN MTG CORP AGY - 5.750 3115/2009 102.188 21 1.18 3.869 1.15 1.14 0.02
40 31359MH8 FED NATL MTG ASSN AGY - 5.000 3115/2016 104.500 42 2.42 4.341 6.63 6.74 0.27
105 31359MHK FED NATL MTG ASSN AGY - 5.500 3115/2011 105.406 112 6.41 3.694 2.89 2.89 0.05
23 31402DJS FNMA POOL - 725773 AGY - 5.500 911/2034 100.176 23 1.30 5.429 4.15 3.52 -1.37
34 31402RDG FNMA POOL - 735503 AGY - 6.000 411/2035 101.737 35 1.99 5.497 3.72 2.70 -1.32
74 31402RRS FNMA POOL - 735897 AGY - 5.500 101112035 99.908 75 4.25 5.492 4.06 3.38 -1.50
60 31407NOM FNMA POOL - 835760 AGY - 4.500 911/2035 94.768 57 3.23 5.486 5.22 5.70 -1.21
28 31413GN7 FNMAPOOL - 945114 AGY - 5.791 811/2037 102.188 29 1.65 4.614 2.14 1.34 -0.43
30 36200EUP GNMA POOL - 599190 AGY - 6.000 311512035 102.908 31 1.76 5.275 3.94 3.37 -0.94
69 36291W7H GNMA POOL - 640896 AGY - 7.000 4/1512035 104.218 72 4.13 5.504 2.82 2.00 -0.62
61 36291XMW GNMA POOL - 641273 AGY - 4.500 411512035 96.080 59 3.36 5.366 4.53 5.60 -0.95
20 38144LAC GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP AA3 NIA 5.450 111112012 101.946 21 1.18 4.989 4.17 4.19 0.10
25 46625HGT JP MORGAN CHASE & CO AA2 N/A 5.375 101112012 101.779 26 1.47 4.948 4.10 4.12 0.10
20 46625YNC JPMCC 2005-LDP2 A4 AAA - 4.738 5/1512015 99.125 20 1.13 4.929 6.07 6.15 0.22
30 52108HU5 LBUBS 2004-C8 A4 AAA - 4.510 12/1512011 98.694 30 1.69 4.924 3.54 3.54 0.08
25 565849AD MARATHON OIL CORP BAA1 NIA 6.000 10/1/2017 101.833 26 1.47 5.750 7.22 7.36 0.34
20 58013ME6 MCDONALDS CORP A3 NIA 5.800 10/15/2017 103.538 21 1.19 5.330 7.37 7.52 0.35
15 595620AD MIDAMERICAN ENERGY CO A2 B- 4.650 1011/2014 96.436 15 0.83 5.283 5.64 5.70 0.19
15 7134486E PEPSICOINC AA2 NIA 5.150 5115/2012 103.828 16 0.89 4.182 3.88 3.89 0.09
10 742718DA PROCTER 8 GAMBLE CO AA3 B+ 4.950 8115/2014 101.335 10 0.59 4.712 5.50 5.56 0.18
10 78387GAP SBC COMMUNICATIONS INC A2 C+ 5.100 9115/2014 98.965 10 0.57 5.284 5.53 5.59 0.19
15 806605AJ SCHERING PLOUGH CORP BAA1 A 6.000 9115/2017 103.603 16 0.90 5.514 7.22 7.36 0.34
20 907818CZ UNION PAC CORP BAA2 NIA 5.750 1111512017 99.620 20 1.15 5.799 7.37 7.53 0.35
15 912828AP US TREAS NTS TSY - 4.000 1111512012 102.695 15 0.88 3.395 4.39 4.41 0.11
15 912828DV US TREAS NTS TSY - 4.125 511512015 101.961 15 0.88 3.817 6.29 6.38 0.24
30 912828DX US TREAS NTS TSY - 3.625 6/1512010 101.367 30 1.74 3.043 2.33 2.33 0.04
110 912828FH US TREAS NTS TSY - 4.875 5/3112011 105.391 116 6.63 3.195 3.13 3.13 0.06
70 912828FN US TREAS NTS TSY - 4.875 713112011 105.531 75 4.29 3.228 3.23 3.23 0.06
75 912828GS US TREAS NTS TSY - 4.500 511512017 103.648 78 4.46 4.028 7.59 7.75 0.35
15 912828HH US TREAS NTS TSY - 4.250 1111512017 101.742 15 0.88 4.034 7.98 8.17 0.39
330 912828HK US TREAS NTS TSY - 3.375 1113012012 99.664 330 18.80 3.450 4.48 4.50 0.12
35 929766X2 WBCMT 2005-C19 A5 AAA - 4.661 711512012 100.412 35 2.01 4.604 4.00 4.01 0.10
~ROCxwooD
CAPITAL ADVISORS
12
Economic Environment & Outlook
Fourth Quarter 2007
~ The onset of the Q3 subprime mortgage crisis has morphed into afull-blown credit
crisis. Rather than offering our current economic outlook, we believe an overview of
the origins and likely direction of the current crisis is more worthwhile at this
juncture.
~ Since September, the Fed has lowered the federal funds target rate by 100 basis
points. However, the current crisis has exposed the shortcomings of the funds rate
as a tool for monetary policy. Several key market-based rates (e.g. LIBOR) have
not tracked the funds rate as they have in the past. In other words, the Fed can
lower the funds rate, but they cannot force LIBOR lower. 99% of all subprime
mortgages are tied to LIBOR.
~ Given the muted impact of the funds rate, the Federal Reserve has created a new
program, the Term Auction Facility (TAF), which allows banks to secure funds from
the Fed anonymously via an auction format. The TAF may become the new major
policy tool for the conduct of monetary policy.
~ What caused this credit crisis? In our view, overly stimulative monetary policy
during the Greenspan era created anation-wide housing bubble which is now
deflating. Low interest rates combined with lax underwriting standards led to an
unprecedented increase in home ownership and a jump in home prices. Rapidly
rising home prices caused housing affordability to reach an all-time low in July 2006,
despite low interest rates.
~ The combination of declining home prices and resets of teaser mortgage rates led
to a high rate of foreclosure in so-called "Alt A" and subprime mortgages. In turn,
the poor performance of these mortgages led to the downgrade of billions of dollars
worth of supposedly high quality mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
~ The agency downgrades of these MBS was a watershed moment and led to a
seizing up in credit markets. For the first time, a AAA rating was no longer a
"guarantee" of safety. Money market funds, banks and brokers who held these
' securities were forced to take large write-downs as the values of these securities
plummeted.
' ~ In our view, there is no quick fix. Government proposals to interfere with the natural
market readjustment process are likely to only drag out the recovery period.
' ~ The vast majority of teaser rate resets will be completed by mid 2008. The rate of
foreclosures should then subside. Home affordability rates will need to improve
before the market stabilizes. In short, housing prices need to decline to the point
' that the average person can once again afford to purchase a home.
ROCKR'OOD CAPITAL ADVISORS 13
Monetary Policy
Fed Funds Target Rate
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
6/00 12/00 6/01 12/01 6/02 12/02 6/03 12/03 6/04 12/04 6/05 12/05 6/06 12/06 6/07 12/07
Real GDP Growth
(Quarterly Growth at Annualized Rate)
' 10%
8%
' 6%
4%
' 2%
0%
-2%
4°/
200375 2004
i 2005 2006 2007
4.5 4.8 4.9
3.5 2.7 3.6
3.0 3.5 2.5
3.1 2.8
2.4 2.1 3.8
1
2
1.2
1.1
1.0*
. 0
6
.
Q1 C,12 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
- o
ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS
*median forecast
14
1 Inflation Pressures Building
1
' Capacity Utilization
86
' 84
U
Q 82
' U
~' 80
~L
w
78
7
C
(~
~ 76
74
' 72
' 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
70
7%
6%
Inflation
Median CPI
Overall CP I
-Core CPI
5%
g 4%
c~
0 3%
a~
co
~ 2%
0
1%
0%
' 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS 15
~~~
I'
--
Labor Market Keeps Tightening
1
' Unemployment Rate
0
9 /o
8%
7%
6%
' 5%
4%
3%
' 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
' Wages
0
5.0 /°
4.5%
t
•~ 4.0%
~ 3.5%
' = 3.0%
rn
Q 2.5%
0
}'
2.0%
' 1.5%
1.0%
' 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
' ROCKWOOD CAPITAL ADVISORS 16